A Tale of Two Markets: A 6-Month Update

A Tale of Two Markets: A 6-Month Update | Simplifying The Market

Six months ago, we reported that the mismatch between the type of inventory of homes for sale and the demand of buyers in the US was causing the formation of two markets.

In the starter and trade-up home categories, there were significantly more buyers than there were homes for sale, causing a seller’s market. In the premium, or luxury, home categories, the opposite was true as there was a surplus of these homes compared to the buyers that were out searching for their dream homes, which created a buyer’s market.

According to the National Association of Realtors latest Existing Home Sales Report, the inventory of existing homes for sale in today’s market is at a 4.2-month supply. Inventory is now 6.5% lower than this time last year, marking the 27th consecutive month of year-over-year decreases.

Looking at the latest report from Trulia, we can see that not much has changed, and in fact, recent natural disasters across the country have made inventory conditions even more dire.

Trulia’s market mismatch score measures the search interest of buyers against the category of homes that are available on the market. For example: “if 60% of buyers are searching for starter homes but only 40% of listings are starter homes, [the] market mismatch score for starter homes would be 20.”

The results of their latest analysis are detailed in the chart below.

A Tale of Two Markets: A 6-Month Update | Simplifying The Market

Nationally, buyers are searching for starter and trade-up homes and are coming up short with the listings available, which is leading to a highly competitive seller’s market in these categories.

Premium homebuyers, on the other hand, have the best chance of less competition and more inventory of listings in their price range with a 14.7-point surplus, which is creating more of a buyer’s market.

Bottom Line

Real estate is local. If you are thinking about buying OR selling this fall, let’s get together to discuss the exact market conditions in your area.

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Which Homes Have Increased in Value the Most?

Which Homes Have Increased in Value the Most? | Simplifying The Market

Home values have risen dramatically over the last twelve months. The latest Existing Home Sales Report from the National Association of Realtors puts the annual increase in the median existing-home price at 5.6%. CoreLogic, in their most recent Home Price Index Report, revealed that national home prices have increased by 6.7% year-over-year.

CoreLogic broke appreciation down ever further into four price ranges which gives a more detailed view than simply looking at the year-over-year increases of the national median home price.

The chart below shows the four tiers and each one’s growth from July 2016 to July 2017 (the latest data available).

Which Homes Have Increased in Value the Most? | Simplifying The Market

It is important to pay attention to how prices are changing in your local market. The location of your home is not the only factor in determining how much it has appreciated over the course of the last year. Lower priced homes have appreciated at greater rates than homes at the upper ends of the spectrum, due to demand from first-time home buyers and baby boomers looking to downsize.

Bottom Line

If you are planning on listing your home for sale in today’s market, let’s get together to go over exactly what’s going on in your area and your price range.

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How Supply and Demand Impacts Real Estate Home Values [INFOGRAPHIC]

How Supply and Demand Impacts Real Estate Home Values [INFOGRAPHIC] | Simplifying The Market

How Supply and Demand Impacts Real Estate Home Values [INFOGRAPHIC] | Simplifying The Market

Some Highlights:

  • The concept of supply & demand is a simple one. The best time to sell something is when the supply of that item is low & the demand for that item is high!
  • Anything under a 6-month supply is a seller’s market!
  • Nationally, there has not been a 6-months inventory supply since August 2012!
  • Inventory levels differ depending on the area of the country and price range, so let’s get together to discuss the exact market conditions in our area.

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America Needs Your House!!

America Needs Your House!! | Simplifying The Market

The biggest challenge in today’s real estate market is a lack of housing inventory. How big of a challenge is the housing shortage? Here are what four industry economists are saying on the issue (emphases added):

Mark Fleming, First American’s Chief Economist

“The underlying fundamental issue is an overwhelming lack of supply… The supply of newly constructed homes is also sagging, adding to the supply challenges. Over the last eight years, housing demand has increased by 5.9 million, but the net new number of housing units has only increased by 3.5 million.”

Svenja Gudell, Zillow’s Chief Economist

“Everyone has been talking about tight inventory but I think we are OK calling it a straight up inventory crisis at this point. We just don’t have enough homes.”

Sean Becketti, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist

“House prices today are higher than they were at the peak in the summer of 2006, near-record-low mortgage rates have boosted housing demand, and sales volume is robust. The spoiler is the lean inventory of houses for sale.”

Lawrence Yun, National Association of Realtors’ Chief Economist

“Listings in the affordable price range continue to be scooped up rapidly, but the severe housing shortages inflicting many markets are keeping a large segment of would-be buyers on the sidelines.”

Bottom Line

If you are considering selling your house soon, now may be the time to get it on the market. The lack of competition could lead to a faster sale at a higher price.

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Where Are Home Prices Heading in The Next 5 Years?

Where Are the Home Prices Heading in The Next 5 Years? | Simplifying The Market

Today, many real estate conversations center on housing prices and where they may be headed. That is why we like the Home Price Expectation Survey.

Every quarter, Pulsenomics surveys a nationwide panel of over one hundred economists, real estate experts, and investment & market strategists about where they believe prices are headed over the next five years. They then average the projections of all 100+ experts into a single number.

The results of their latest survey:

Home values will appreciate by 5.0% over the course of 2017, 4.0% in 2018, 3.2% in 2019, 3.0% in 2020, and 3.0% in 2021. That means the average annual appreciation will be 3.64% over the next 5 years.

Where Are the Home Prices Heading in The Next 5 Years? | Simplifying The Market

The prediction for cumulative appreciation increased from 17.8% to 18.4% by 2021. The experts making up the most bearish quartile of the survey are projecting a cumulative appreciation of 6.7%.

Where Are the Home Prices Heading in The Next 5 Years? | Simplifying The Market

Bottom Line

Individual opinions make headlines. We believe this survey is a fairer depiction of future values.

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